Continual Vigilance

There’s something weird that happens to ballplayers when they strap on their spikes at Dodger Stadium.

Maybe, it’s the glitter and glamour that gets to them.

Or it could be the balmy weather, even in April.

Possibly it is because there are such gorgeous babes in the stands, in various states of undress.

Within a year or two of arrival, they kick back, or nurse injuries, or just lose all the starch that was in their caps when they played for the Marlins, or Braves, or Toronto.

Look at Brian Jordan, Shawn Green, Gary Sheffield, and then that litany of pitchers gone badDarren Dreifort and Kevin Brown, to name a few of the vastly overpaid.

Now, we have a new regime in town, a new General Manager from the archrival Giants, Mr. Coletti, and a team of hastily assembled veterans, with questionable health credentials.

Can this team make a credible run at the division championship?

It can, if only because its peer group is mediocre, at best. The Padres topped the division in ‘05 by winning slightly more than half of their games. So, hobbled and knarled veterans could patch together a better record, simply by showing up.

But don’t expect them to get into the second round of the postseason. By then, the only man left standing may be Jeff Kent.

That’s no surprise: he’s the only gamer among them, who Hollywood hasn’t been able to seduce.

Yet.

Dr. Gary S. Goodman, President of Customersatisfaction.com, is a popular keynote speaker, management consultant, and seminar leader and the best-selling author of 12 books, including Reach Out & Sell Someone® and Monitoring, Measuring & Managing Customer Service, and the audio program, “The Law of Large Numbers: How To Make Success Inevitable,” published by Nightingale-Conant. He is a frequent guest on radio and television, worldwide. A Ph.D. from USC’s Annenberg School, a Loyola lawyer, and an MBA from the Peter F. Drucker School at Claremont Graduate University, Gary offers programs through UCLA Extension and numerous universities, trade associations, and other organizations in the United States and abroad. He holds the rank of Shodan, 1st Degree Black Belt in Kenpo Karate. He is headquartered in Glendale, California, and he can be reached at (818) 243-7338 or at: gary@customersatisfaction.com.

Kobe scored 51 points last night in Sacramento (his third
50-plus game this year) but it didn’t stop the Lakers from
blowing a five-point lead over the last 35 seconds of
regulation. LA lost 118-109 in OT and tonight plays in Phoenix
against the Suns, as the second half of ESPN’s NBA doubleheader
(10:35 ET). The Spurs visit Miami to take on the Heat at 8:05 ET
in the first half of that doubleheader, as these two marquee
games highlight a 13-game NBA card for Friday.

My free play for Friday is in the NBA. Take the Mia Heat over
the SA Spurs at 8:05 ET. Although it’s a HUGE NBA card on
Friday, I’m playing just ONE game. It’s my Situational Game of
the Month. Get it NOW!

The Spurs own the league’s second-best record at 30-9 and enter
having won nine of 11 and SEVEN of their last eight versus the
Heat, including a 98-84 win in San Antonio back on December 12.
Shaq was not yet back for Miami in that one but he’ll be ready
tonight, as will Dwayne Wade, who is expected to play despite
some ankle problems. However, those problems haven’t kept him
from scoring 30 or more points in FOUR of his last five games.
The Heat are 13-6 since Shaq returned to the lineup, including
5-1 at home (just 3-3 ATS). The Spurs are 11-7 SU and 7-10-1 ATS
on the road. The Heat are a three-point favorite with a total of
187 1/2.

Phoenix has won all five meetings with the Lakers (averaging 115
PPG) since Shaq left for Miami, after going 8-24 in the Shaq-era
(averaging 95 PPG). Phoenix is still the league’s top-scoring
team this year (105.2 PPG) even with Stoudemire out plus Johnson
and Richardson elsewhere. More impressively, the Suns have cut
their defensive average this year by a little over four PPG and
the team’s point-differential of plus-6.1 is topped by only San
Antonio and Detroit. After an 0-3 start at home this season, the
Suns have gone 15-3 SU and 11-7 ATS but while the Lakers are
just 11-10 SU on the road, they are 14-7 ATS. Phoenix is favored
by eight points and the total is 209.

It’s the NFL’s version of the “Final Four” this Sunday, as
Pittsburgh takes on Denver in the AFC title game and Carolina is
in Seattle for the NFC title game. Denver and Seattle were the
league’s only two teams to go through the regular season
unbeaten at home and after winning home games last weekend, can
advance to the Super Bowl by “holding serve” one more time. For
either Carolina or Pittsburgh to advance to the Super Bowl, they
would have to join the 1985 New England Patriots, who are the
only team to have ever advanced to a Super Bowl by winning three
straight road playoff games!

Home teams have gone 46-24 SU and 39-29-2 ATS since the 1970
merger in championship games. However, after going 16-4 SU and
15-5 ATS during the 1980s, things have changed since the league
went to a 12-team playoff format in 1990 (any connection?).

Over the last 30 championship games, home teams are just 17-13
SU, with visiting teams ‘covering’ 17 of the 30 games, including
11 of the last 16. Going back to 1970, these title games haven’t
been close. In fact, exactly half (35 of 70) have been decided
by 14 points or more! All SIX of the games the last three years
have been decided by double digits, as have EIGHT of the last
10!

Since 1990, home teams have won both games four times but not
once since 1996. Visiting teams swept both championship games in
both 1992 (Buffalo and Dallas) and 1997 (Denver and Green Bay).
Since 1998, the last seven years have seen one visiting team and
one home team advance to the Super Bowl (the ball’s in your
court!).

In the AFC, Pittsburgh is the first No. 6 seed (since 1990) to
advance to a conference title game. The Steelers broke a string
of 10 consecutive No. 6 seeds that lost in the divisional round
when they beat the Colts last Sunday, so why can’t they win
here? Cowher had been 0-3 in playoff road games prior to this
year but has now won two straight, so maybe being on the road
for this title game is a good thing?

Especially when you consider he’s 1-4 in five previous AFC title
games (all at home!). However, the Broncos are not only 9-0 at
home this year after beating the Patriots, but they are 12-2
all-time at home in the playoffs plus 6-1 in seven previous AFC
title games (4-0 at home!). Denver is favored by three points
with a total of 41.

In the NFC, Carolina is a No. 5 seed and the Panthers are just
the third No. 5 seed (since 1990) to advance to a conference
title game (first in the NFC). Both previous No. 5 seeds lost,
the Colts 20-16 to the Steelers in 1995 (but they covered) and
the Jaguars 20-6 to the Patriots in 1996 (they didn’t). In the
Panthers favor is Steve Smith (the playoff MVP to this point)
and Jake Delhomme (5-1 as a starter in the playoffs), including
an NFL record-tying FOUR playoff road wins (matching Len Dawson
and Roger Staubach).

Seattle is at home but the Seahawks are playing in just their
2nd title game in 30 years, while the Panthers are playing in
their 3rd title game in their 11-year history. With the AFC’s
No. 1 seed gone (Indy), a loss by Seattle would give us just our
second Super Bowl since 1990 (and first since 1997), without ONE
of the two No. 1 seeds. Seattle is favored by 3 1/2 points with
a total of 43 1/2.

Ness Notes is available Monday through Friday by 1:00 ET.
Saturday and Sunday it’s available at 7:00 ET.

Una de las atracciones del partido entre Brasil y Croacia ser
el ver a Ronaldo y Robinho jugando juntos. Roanaldo dej claro
las ganas con la que esperan a su compatriota en ell seno de la
plantilla blanca: “Estamos ansiosos porque venga al Real Madrid,
pero con tranquilidad. Le espera un futuro brillante con
nosotros, pero en estos momentos debemos estar concentrados con
Brasil, y cuando se acabe esperar a que llegue a Madrid y
desearle la mayor suerte del mundo”.

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